Loading...
Market
Outcome of the investigation into the Trump assassination attempt by end of 2024?
3
Donald Trump•Butler•Pennsylvania•Trump•Secret Service•Kimberly Cheatle•House Oversight Committee•Homeland Security Committee•Mark Green•Cheatle•Matthew Thomas Crooks
Resolution / Starting Odds
Security lapses confirmed • 25%
No security lapses found • 25%
Mixed findings • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Publicly available findings and official statements from the investigation
Story
Secret Service Director to Testify on Trump Assassination Attempt at July 13 Butler Rally
Jul 22, 2024, 11:30 AM
The U.S. Secret Service is under intense scrutiny following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump during a July 13 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, which resulted in a wound to Trump's ear. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle is set to testify before the House Oversight Committee on Monday, where she is expected to face tough questions from lawmakers about the agency's security failures. Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green has announced that a bipartisan group will visit the site of the incident to investigate the security lapses. Cheatle has acknowledged the agency's failure and expressed her willingness to cooperate with an independent security review. The incident, involving gunman Matthew Thomas Crooks, has raised significant concerns about the Secret Service's ability to protect high-profile individuals, with some lawmakers calling for Cheatle's resignation.
View original story
Similar markets
US internal threat • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Shooter apprehended and charged • 25%
Shooter identified but not apprehended • 25%
Shooter unidentified • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Motivated by political reasons • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspect(s) arrested • 25%
Suspect(s) identified but not arrested • 25%
No suspect(s) identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Biden Administration involvement • 25%
Foreign entity involvement • 25%
Domestic entity involvement • 25%
Lone wolf • 25%
Lone wolf attacker • 25%
Organized group • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Unknown/Unresolved • 25%
Setup confirmed • 25%
Not a setup • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Negligence confirmed • 25%
Operational failure confirmed • 25%
No significant failures found • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Bullet • 25%
Shrapnel • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Security Policy Overhaul • 25%
Personnel Changes • 25%
Increased Funding • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Crooks found guilty • 25%
Crooks found not guilty • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lone Wolf Act • 25%
Organized Plot • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Secret Service at fault • 25%
Local law enforcement at fault • 25%
Both at fault • 25%
Neither at fault • 25%
Charges filed against additional suspects • 25%
Ryan Routh is the only suspect • 25%
Investigation finds no additional evidence • 25%
Investigation results not disclosed • 25%
Lone shooter • 25%
Multiple shooters • 25%
Accomplices but only one shooter • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
FBI cooperation • 25%
State charges filed • 25%
Federal charges filed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Gunman acted alone • 25%
Gunman was part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Investigation remains inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspect apprehended • 25%
Suspect not apprehended • 25%
Suspect deceased • 25%