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Outcome of the conflict between Arakan Army and Myanmar military by end of 2024
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Arakan Army gains control • 25%
Myanmar military retains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
International news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Escalating Conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine State Forces Thousands of Rohingya to Flee to Bangladesh
Sep 4, 2024, 04:36 AM
The conflict between the military and ethnic rebels in Myanmar's southernmost township in Rakhine state has intensified, leading to a significant humanitarian crisis. More than 40,000 civilians have fled to the neighboring Ayeyarwady region. The Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine group, is carving out a proto-state on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border and is engaged in heavy fighting with regime forces, severely impacting civilians, including the Rohingya. In recent months, around 8,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled to Bangladesh to escape the violence. The United Nations has called for greater global support to address the immense humanitarian needs of the Rohingya, who have faced generations of discrimination and persecution.
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Similar markets
Rebel Victory • 25%
Junta Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Defeated by Myanmar military • 25%
Reached a peace agreement • 25%
Continues to control territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Mandalay Region • 25%
Rakhine State • 25%
Shan State • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Arakan Army • 25%
MDY-PDF • 25%
TNLA • 25%
Other • 25%
Warrant Issued • 25%
Warrant Denied • 25%
Pending Decision • 25%
Case Withdrawn • 25%
Arakan Army • 25%
Another insurgent group • 25%
Foreign entity • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Leadership Change • 25%
Policy Change • 25%
No Change • 25%
Increased Repression • 25%
Rebel Forces • 25%
Junta • 25%
Joint Control • 25%
Other • 25%