Loading...
Market
Outcome of next IDF operation in Gaza related to hostage recovery by end of 2025
2
Israeli•Rafah•Gaza Strip•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Israel Security Agency•Shin Bet•Youssef•Bedouin•Rahat•Hamas•Hamza•Bilal•Aisha
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful with hostages recovered • 25%
Partial success with some hostages recovered • 25%
Unsuccessful with no hostages recovered • 25%
Operation not conducted • 25%
Official statements from the IDF and analysis by major international news outlets
Story
IDF Recovers Body of Hostage Youssef al-Ziyadna from Rafah Tunnel; Son Hamza Also Presumed Dead
Jan 8, 2025, 04:08 PM
Israeli forces have recovered the body of Israeli hostage Youssef al-Ziyadna, 53, from an underground tunnel in Rafah in the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) announced on Wednesday. Youssef, a father of 19 children from the Bedouin community in Rahat, was abducted by Hamas militants along with three of his children during the October 7 attacks. The IDF stated that Youssef was killed in captivity. While the body of his son Hamza, 22, was not found, evidence suggests he was also killed. Two of Youssef’s other children, Bilal (18) and Aisha (17), were released in a previous hostage exchange in November 2023. The recovery brings the number of hostages still held by Hamas to 98, including both living hostages and those whose remains have yet to be retrieved.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Continuation of current conflict levels • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant reduction in tunnel activities • 25%
Increased international diplomatic tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Major humanitarian impact • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Some hostages liberated • 25%
Unknown status • 25%
No hostages liberated • 25%
All hostages liberated • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Negotiation • 25%
Other diplomatic means • 25%
Military operation • 25%
Hostage escapes • 25%
Hostage killed • 25%
Hostage remains in captivity • 25%
Hostage released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Ground offensive • 25%
Air strikes • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%