Loading...
Market
Outcome of Israeli Airstrike Investigation by March 31, 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Justified Military Action • 25%
Violation of Ceasefire • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Official investigation reports from Israeli government or international bodies
Story
Israeli Drone Strike Kills Five, Injures Four in Southern Lebanon Amid Over 1,000 Ceasefire Violations
Jan 10, 2025, 03:04 PM
An Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in the town of Tayr Debba near Tyre in southern Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of at least five people and injuries to four others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The attack occurred despite a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, which has been in effect since late November. The Israeli military confirmed conducting an airstrike on vehicles loaded with weapons used by Hezbollah in the area. This incident marks a continuation of violations of the ceasefire, with reports indicating over 1,000 violations by Israeli forces since the agreement took effect on November 27.
View original story
Similar markets
Mistake in targeting • 25%
Justified military action • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
IDF not found at fault • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
IDF found at fault • 25%
No investigation conducted • 25%
Other • 25%
Human error • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Insufficient intelligence • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Classified/undisclosed • 25%
System overload • 25%
Human error • 25%
Airstrike deemed intentional • 25%
Airstrike deemed accidental • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No public conclusion • 25%
Revised findings • 25%
Confirmation of current findings • 25%
Other • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%
Both technical and human error • 25%
No clear cause identified • 25%
Human error identified • 25%
Technical failure identified • 25%
Admits responsibility • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Denies involvement • 25%
Blames external factors • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Not arrested, case dismissed • 25%
Arrested and charged • 25%
Arrested but not charged • 25%
Justified under self-defense • 25%
Mistake acknowledged • 25%
No conclusion reached • 25%
Investigation not completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Israel found responsible • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%