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Outcome of Israel-Iran military confrontation by mid-2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No military confrontation • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Major military conflict • 25%
Other military outcome • 25%
Reports from credible news organizations or official statements from the Israeli or Iranian governments
Story
Israel Assures U.S. It Won't Strike Iranian Nuclear or Oil Sites, Officials Say
Oct 15, 2024, 04:21 PM
Israel has provided assurances to the Biden administration that it will not conduct strikes on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, according to U.S. officials. This statement comes amidst heightened tensions in the region and reflects ongoing diplomatic communications between the two nations. The assurances were reported by multiple sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Associated Press, emphasizing Israel's commitment to avoiding direct attacks on these critical sites.
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Limited skirmishes • 25%
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Iran nuclear deal • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict into 2025 • 25%
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No conflict occurs • 25%
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