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Outcome of investigation into radar targeting incident by May 31, 2025?
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NATO•Baltic Sea•Russian•French•Sebastien Lecornu•Baltic Sentry operation•Russia•Brittany•Sweden•Baltic
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed Russian intent to target • 25%
Accidental targeting by Russia • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
No investigation conducted • 25%
Reports from NATO or involved national defense agencies
Story
French Navy Aircraft Targeted by Russian S-400 Radar in NATO Mission Over Baltic Sea
Jan 17, 2025, 01:59 PM
A French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft, engaged in a NATO surveillance mission over the Baltic Sea, was targeted by Russian forces. The incident occurred overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, when the aircraft was illuminated by the fire-control radar of a Russian S-400 ground-to-air defense system. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu condemned the action as an 'aggressive' and 'unacceptable' act of intimidation. The aircraft was part of NATO's Baltic Sentry operation, which aims to protect critical underwater infrastructure following recent damages to undersea cables, suspected to be sabotage by Russia. The French aircraft, which had taken off from Brittany, spent nearly five hours off the coast of Sweden and the Baltic countries, monitoring around 200 ships, mostly civilian, without detecting any suspicious vessels.
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No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Non-state actor involvement confirmed • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
State actor involvement confirmed • 25%
Other • 25%
Domestic group or individual • 25%
Foreign government involvement • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Suspects convicted • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Suspects acquitted • 25%
Confirmed military target • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Mixed target • 25%
Confirmed civilian target • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Protocol change recommended • 25%
Training improvements suggested • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Policy recommendations • 25%
Identified and prosecuted individuals • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No evidence of missile strike • 25%
Missile intercepted but malfunction reported • 25%
Houthi missile evaded defense systems • 25%
Criminal organization charges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Gang-related charges • 25%
No charges • 25%
Human error identified • 25%
Technical failure identified • 25%
Both technical and human error • 25%
No clear cause identified • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Confirmed by NATO • 25%
Confirmed by Romania • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Unintentional miscommunication • 25%
Deliberate provocation • 25%