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Market
Outcome of Houthi-Israeli conflict by July 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation of Conflict • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Resolution through Mediation • 25%
International peace agreements or ceasefire announcements reported by credible news outlets
Story
Yemen's Houthis Launch 9-Hour Attack on USS Harry S. Truman, Marking Fifth Strike in Red Sea
Jan 11, 2025, 08:13 PM
Yemen's Houthi group has claimed responsibility for a missile and drone attack on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the northern Red Sea. The group's military spokesman, Yahya Saree, stated that the operation, which lasted nine hours, was part of several military actions conducted over the past 48 hours, which also included strikes on Israeli targets. The attack on the USS Harry S. Truman was described as the fifth such operation since the carrier's arrival in the Red Sea and forced the aircraft carrier to retreat to the far north of the Red Sea. The group's actions are in response to ongoing tensions with the US, UK, and Israel, and are intended to support Gaza amid the conflict there.
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Escalation to regional conflict • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation to wider conflict • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Israeli withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Houthi forces retreat • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Houthi victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Houthi victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant damage to Houthi infrastructure • 25%
Limited damage to Houthi infrastructure • 25%
No reported damage to Houthi infrastructure • 25%
Houthi military victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Partial military success • 25%
Complete military victory for Israel • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
No significant damage • 25%
Partial destruction • 25%
Complete destruction of infrastructure • 25%
Increased Houthi aggression • 25%
Significant Houthi retreat • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%