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Outcome of first major U.S.-Russia diplomatic engagement post-Trump inauguration?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry, and reports from major news outlets
Story
Speaker Mike Johnson Rejects Biden's $24B Ukraine Aid, Says Trump's Election Will Change War Dynamics
Dec 4, 2024, 05:00 PM
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has announced that he will not bring additional Ukraine aid to the floor, rejecting President Joe Biden's request for $24 billion in new funding. Johnson stated that the decision on further funding will be deferred until President-elect Donald Trump assumes office, saying, 'It is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now. We have a newly elected president, and we're going to wait and take the new commander-in-chief's direction on all of that.' He noted that 'there are developments by the hour in Ukraine' and predicted that Trump's election would 'change the dynamic of the Russia war.' The Biden administration had earlier urged Congress to approve the additional funds to support Ukraine's military efforts.
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Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement to de-escalate military activities • 25%
Continuation of current policies • 25%
Imposition of new sanctions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Another prisoner swap • 25%
New sanctions • 25%
Bilateral summit • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic channels • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military standoff • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
New treaty signed • 25%
Improved relations without formal treaty • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Normalization achieved • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Another prisoner swap • 25%
Easing of sanctions • 25%
New sanctions • 25%
No major action • 25%
Summit Meeting • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Trade Agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
Agreement on new terms • 25%
No agreement but continued talks • 25%
Talks end without agreement • 25%
No talks occur • 25%
United States • 33%
Russia • 33%
Neither • 34%
Agreement on ceasefire • 25%
Agreement on peace talks • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%