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Next major diplomatic intervention in Russia-Ukraine conflict by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Prisoner swap • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries or credible international news sources
Story
Russia and Ukraine Conduct First Swap in Months, Exchange 150 Prisoners Each Mediated by UAE
Dec 30, 2024, 02:45 PM
Russia and Ukraine have conducted their first prisoner swap in over two months, exchanging 150 prisoners of war each in a deal mediated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Russian Defense Ministry announced on December 30, 2024, that 150 Russian soldiers were returned from Ukrainian captivity, while 150 Ukrainian soldiers were released to Ukraine. The UAE provided humanitarian mediation efforts to facilitate the exchange, which comes amid ongoing conflict between the two nations.
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European Union • 25%
NATO • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
No major action • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Increased Military Aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Mediation Efforts • 25%
Led by another country • 25%
Led by the EU • 25%
Led by the U.S. • 25%
No mediation efforts • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased US support for Ukraine • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Seek new negotiations • 25%
Announce a ceasefire • 25%
Increase military operations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
