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New Lead in Navalny Death Investigation Emerges by Mid-2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public disclosures by investigative bodies or credible media reports.
Story
U.S. Intelligence: Putin Likely Didn't Order Navalny's Killing
Apr 27, 2024, 03:08 AM
U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and DNI, have concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely did not directly order the killing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in February at the FKU IK-3 penal colony in the Yamalo-Nenets region. The findings suggest that while Putin did not orchestrate the timing of Navalny's death, he remains ultimately responsible for the incident. This assessment aligns with previous statements from Ukraine three months prior, which also indicated that Putin was not directly involved in Navalny's assassination.
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Further investigations launched by December 2024 • 50%
No further investigations by December 2024 • 50%
Putin directly involved • 25%
Senior Russian officials involved • 25%
No high-level involvement found • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
U.S. President • 25%
UN Secretary-General • 25%
EU President • 25%
None • 25%
Significant leadership or policy changes by December 2024 • 50%
No significant changes by December 2024 • 50%
Confirmed as planned assassination • 25%
Confirmed as an accident • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant public protests • 25%
Minor public reactions • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
Increased support for the government • 25%