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VisitWill there be significant Russian leadership or policy changes by December 2024 due to Navalny's death?
Significant leadership or policy changes by December 2024 • 50%
No significant changes by December 2024 • 50%
Verified news sources and official Russian government announcements
U.S. Intel: Putin Likely Didn't Order Navalny's February Killing at Arctic Penal Colony
Apr 27, 2024, 12:45 PM
U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, have concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely did not directly order the killing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in February at the FKU IK-3 penal colony in the Arctic. While the findings do not absolve Putin of responsibility, they indicate he may not have planned the timing of Navalny's death. This assessment comes three months after Ukraine also acknowledged that Putin was not behind Navalny's assassination, challenging earlier accusations. However, Navalny allies and some European security officials remain unconvinced, and the circumstances surrounding Navalny's death are still unclear.
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No Change • 25%
Change in Top Commander • 25%
Change in Defense Minister • 25%
Widespread Leadership Changes • 25%
Putin remains President • 25%
Putin resigns • 25%
Putin replaced by new President • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Vladimir Putin remains President • 33%
New President from Russian government • 33%
New President from opposition • 33%
Vladimir Putin remains • 25%
Defense Minister replaced • 25%
Chief of General Staff replaced • 25%
Other significant changes • 25%
Putin remains • 33%
Putin resigns • 33%
Putin is removed • 33%
Increase in security measures • 33%
No change in policy • 33%
Softening of stance on information sharing • 34%
Vladimir Putin • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy • 25%
No Change • 25%
Sanctions imposed by December 2024 • 50%
No sanctions imposed by December 2024 • 50%
No further investigations by December 2024 • 50%
Further investigations launched by December 2024 • 50%
Deterioration of Russia-West relations • 33%
Improvement in diplomatic relations due to transparency • 34%
No change in diplomatic relations • 33%
Confirmed as an accident • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Confirmed as planned assassination • 25%