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Market
Most influential GOP faction by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Traditional Conservatives • 25%
Trump Loyalists • 25%
Moderates/RINOs • 25%
Libertarians • 25%
Analysis by political experts and major news outlets
Story
Trump and Musk Threaten RINOs with Billions in Primary Challenges Over Cabinet Picks
Nov 25, 2024, 01:36 AM
Former President Donald Trump is reportedly pressuring Republican senators to support his cabinet picks by threatening them with primary challenges funded by billionaire Elon Musk. An adviser to Trump indicated that the message conveyed to the senators was clear: opposing the vote would result in facing a primary challenge, with Musk prepared to finance these efforts. Musk has allegedly signaled his willingness to spend billions to unseat any Republican senator who votes against Trump's nominees. This situation has escalated tensions within the GOP as Musk's influence grows, particularly among the party's more moderate members, often referred to as RINOs (Republicans In Name Only).
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Main Street Caucus • 25%
Freedom Caucus • 25%
Republican Study Committee • 25%
Other • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Other • 25%
Established leadership • 25%
Progressive wing • 25%
Moderate faction • 25%
Other • 25%
Progressive • 25%
Moderate • 25%
Conservative • 25%
Other • 25%
Fiscal conservatives • 25%
Moderate Republicans • 25%
Trump loyalists • 25%
Other • 25%
J.D. Vance • 25%
Mitch McConnell • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Other • 25%
Nick Begich • 25%
Another freshman representative • 25%
Shared influence among multiple representatives • 25%
No clear standout • 25%
Economic policies • 25%
Immigration policies • 25%
Social issues • 25%
Foreign policy • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Elise Stefanik • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Centrist • 25%
Progressive • 25%
Moderate • 25%
Other • 25%
Hispanic voters • 25%
African American voters • 25%
Young voters (18-29) • 25%
Other • 25%