Market
Will Turkish parliament vote on constitutional amendment for term limits by end of 2026?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official records from the Turkish parliament, reported by major news outlets
Story
Erdoğan Signals 2028 Presidential Run, Hinges on Constitutional Change or Early Elections
Jan 12, 2025, 09:25 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated his willingness to run for another term in the 2028 presidential elections during a conversation with the popular Turkish singer Ibrahim Tatlıses at a cultural event in the city of Aydın. The exchange took place where Tatlıses asked Erdoğan if he would be present for the next term. Erdoğan responded affirmatively, stating, 'If you are there, I am there.' This marks the first time Erdoğan has publicly hinted at running for office again, despite the Turkish Constitution prohibiting a third term. For Erdoğan to run in 2028, either a constitutional amendment would be required or early elections would need to be called, which would necessitate 360 votes from the 600 members of the Turkish parliament.
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Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) • 25%
No party initiates • 25%
Other parties • 25%
Justice and Development Party (AKP) • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant involvement • 25%
Passes new legislation for peace • 25%
Other involvement • 25%
Holds official peace talks • 25%
Constitutional amendment passed • 25%
Announces candidacy • 25%
Early elections called • 25%
Does not announce candidacy • 25%
Oppose constitutional amendment • 25%
Support constitutional amendment • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Propose alternative candidate • 25%
