Market
Will Trump's executive order on sex recognition be challenged in court by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Court filings and legal news reports
Story
Trump Executive Order Recognizes Only Two Sexes on Federal Documents, Targets Gender Ideology
Jan 23, 2025, 04:24 PM
President Donald Trump has issued an executive order declaring that the U.S. government will only recognize two sexes, male and female, based on the reproductive cells produced at conception. This order reverses previous policies allowing Americans to select 'X' on federal documents such as passports. It mandates that all government-issued identification documents must reflect the holder's sex assigned at birth. The order also aims to prevent federal funds from being used to promote what it terms 'gender ideology.' Additionally, it calls for transgender women to be housed with men in federal prisons and ends gender-affirming care for incarcerated transgender individuals. Trump's directive is part of a broader effort to roll back protections for transgender individuals, potentially affecting their access to federal services and facilities. The policy has sparked concerns among transgender and non-binary communities about future protections and opportunities.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Some challenges • 33%
No major challenges • 33%
Major challenges • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Supreme Court • 25%
Circuit Court • 25%
District Court • 25%
No ruling by end of 2025 • 25%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Orders fully overturned • 25%
Orders upheld • 25%
Orders partially overturned • 25%