Market
Will the U.S. reach a formal political transition agreement with HTS by mid-2025?
3
Damascus•Syria•State Department•Barbara Leaf•Roger Carstens•Daniel Rubinstein•Americans•Austin Tice•HTS•Washington
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official U.S. government or HTS announcements
Story
U.S. Diplomats Meet HTS Leader Jolani in Damascus to Discuss Syria's Future
Dec 20, 2024, 07:40 AM
Senior U.S. diplomats have arrived in Damascus for the first time since 2012 to meet with Syria's new Islamist-led authorities, following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The State Department confirmed that officials including Barbara Leaf, Roger Carstens, and Daniel Rubinstein are in talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al-Qaeda affiliate led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who has a $10 million bounty on his head. The discussions aim to press for a smooth political transition, explore the potential removal of HTS from the U.S. terrorist list, address the fate of missing Americans in Syria—including journalist Austin Tice—and understand how HTS plans to govern the country. This marks the first official engagement between Washington and Syria's new de facto rulers since the closure of the U.S. embassy in Damascus in 2012.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
