Market
Will the US re-establish a bounty on Ahmad al-Sharaa by mid-2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
US government announcements or official statements from the Rewards for Justice program
Story
US Cancels $10 Million Bounty on HTS Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa
Dec 20, 2024, 07:00 PM
The United States has cancelled the $10 million bounty under the Rewards for Justice program on Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the new de facto leader of Syria. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf announced the decision after meeting with al-Sharaa in Damascus. Leaf stated that al-Sharaa pledged not to allow terrorist groups to operate in Syria and threaten the US or neighboring countries.
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Israel • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Change in U.S. administration policy • 25%
Security improvements in Syria • 25%
Diplomatic agreements • 25%
Significant reduction in terrorist activities • 25%
Increase in terrorist activities • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
No change in terrorist activities • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant international stance • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Recognized by some, not all • 25%
Recognized by all major Western countries • 25%
Not recognized by any • 25%
Status unclear • 25%
Other significant actions • 25%
Negotiations or talks initiated • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
