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Will the U.S. and Mexico sign a formal cooperation agreement to combat drug cartels in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements or signed agreements released by the U.S. or Mexican government
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Marco Rubio Considers Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels, Open to Designating Them as Terrorists
Jan 15, 2025, 10:30 PM
Marco Rubio, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump as the next U.S. Secretary of State, has indicated that military action against Mexican drug cartels remains an option. During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio described the cartels as 'sophisticated enterprises' involved in human trafficking, drug trafficking, and migrant smuggling. He emphasized that these groups not only terrorize the United States but also undermine the Mexican government, its sovereignty, and the health and well-being of the Mexican people. Rubio suggested that designating the cartels as terrorist organizations could be an 'imperfect tool' but did not rule it out, stating it is important to identify and label these groups as terrorists due to their nature of causing mass migration and drug flow. He expressed a preference for cooperation with the Mexican government to address the issue, acknowledging the cartels' impact on both countries.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased intelligence sharing • 25%
New bilateral agreements • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Significant joint operations • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Unchanged cooperation • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
No change in cooperation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant outcome • 25%
Agreement on joint action • 25%
Disagreement and tension • 25%
Continued negotiations • 25%
