Market
Will the U.S. and Japan sign a new defense cooperation agreement by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official U.S. or Japanese government announcements or press releases
Story
Trump Nominates Elbridge Colby as Defense Policy Chief on December 22, Advocating Japan's Defense Spending Increase to 3% of GDP
Dec 23, 2024, 07:12 AM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Elbridge Colby for the position of policy chief at the Defense Department, a move that could have significant implications for Japan's defense spending. Colby is known for advocating that Japan should increase its defense budget to 3% of its GDP, a stance he reiterated in an October post where he cited concerns over potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. His nomination aligns with Trump's broader strategy to bolster U.S. defense ties in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Other outcomes • 25%
One new agreement • 25%
Two or more new agreements • 25%
No new agreements • 25%
Strengthened ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
New alliance formation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
South Korea • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
Severe deterioration • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Strengthened military agreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Reduced military agreements • 25%
