Market
What will be the primary motivator for Japan's defense spending changes by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Chinese military activities • 25%
North Korean threats • 25%
U.S. pressure • 25%
Domestic political factors • 25%
Statements from Japanese government officials or defense policy documents
Story
Trump Nominates Elbridge Colby as Defense Policy Chief on December 22, Advocating Japan's Defense Spending Increase to 3% of GDP
Dec 23, 2024, 07:12 AM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Elbridge Colby for the position of policy chief at the Defense Department, a move that could have significant implications for Japan's defense spending. Colby is known for advocating that Japan should increase its defense budget to 3% of its GDP, a stance he reiterated in an October post where he cited concerns over potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. His nomination aligns with Trump's broader strategy to bolster U.S. defense ties in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase by less than 5% • 25%
No Increase • 25%
Increase by 5-10% • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Increase in defense budget • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Strengthening alliances • 25%
10% to 15% • 25%
Less than 5% • 25%
5% to 10% • 25%
More than 15% • 25%
Internal security threats • 25%
Ongoing conflict in Ukraine • 25%
Increased global military tensions • 25%
Modernization of military capabilities • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Economic security • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Diplomatic relations • 25%
Regional security • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other Reasons • 25%
Inflation Adjustments • 25%
Military Modernization • 25%
National Security Threats • 25%
Modernization needs • 25%
Strategic deterrence • 25%
Conflict in Ukraine • 25%
NATO expansion • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Other • 25%
Naval Expansion • 25%
Space Force • 25%