Market
Will the French government invoke Article 49.3 again by the end of 2024?
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Michel Barnier•Constitution•Social Security•Rassemblement National•RN•Marine Le Pen•La France Insoumise•LFI•Barnier•Jordan Bardella•National Assembly
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements by the French government or major news outlets
Story
Barnier Invokes First 49.3 to Pass Budget; Faces No-Confidence Vote Wednesday
Dec 2, 2024, 02:45 PM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has, for the first time since his nomination, invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through the Social Security budget without a parliamentary vote, amid strong opposition. The move, announced on December 2, 2024, has prompted opposition parties including the Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen and La France Insoumise (LFI) to file motions of censure against the government. The no-confidence vote, expected on Wednesday, could potentially topple Barnier's administration. The RN has confirmed it will support the motion, with Jordan Bardella stating the party will vote for censure 'sauf miracle de dernière minute' (barring a last-minute miracle). In a message to his ministers, Barnier acknowledged, 'We are in a serious moment.' The government's reliance on Article 49.3 highlights the challenges it faces in securing majority support for its policies in the National Assembly.
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