Market
What will be the outcome of Supreme Court case Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Rule in favor of Texas • 25%
Rule in favor of Free Speech Coalition • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. Supreme Court decision publications
Story
Supreme Court Weighs First Amendment Challenge to Texas Age Verification Law for Online Pornography
Jan 15, 2025, 02:08 PM
On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in the case Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton, which challenges a Texas law requiring age verification for accessing pornographic websites. Defended by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the law mandates that adult websites must verify the age of their users to prevent minors from viewing explicit content. Opponents, including the ACLU, argue that the law violates the First Amendment rights of adults by imposing undue burdens on their access to constitutionally protected material and raising concerns about online anonymity and privacy. During the hearing, Justice Samuel Alito and other justices appeared sympathetic to Texas' position, expressing concerns about the ease with which minors can access online pornography. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for similar age verification laws enacted in over 20 states, shaping the future of online content regulation and the balance between protecting children and preserving free speech rights.
View original story
Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Law struck down • 25%
Case remanded • 25%
Law upheld • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Law upheld • 25%
Law struck down • 25%
Law partially upheld/struck down • 25%
Strike down the law • 33%
Remand to lower court • 34%
Uphold the law • 33%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Partial ruling • 25%
Uphold the ban • 25%
Strike down the ban • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Uphold the ban • 25%
Strike down the ban • 25%
Partially uphold/strike down • 25%
TikTok ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case postponed • 25%
TikTok ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Uphold the law • 25%
Strike down the law • 25%
Remand to lower courts • 25%
Partial ruling • 34%
Ban upheld • 33%
Ban overturned • 33%