Market
Will South Africa report an increase in HIV-related deaths by the end of 2025 due to PEPFAR suspension?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Health reports or statistics from South African health authorities or international health organizations
Story
Trump Administration Halts HIV Medication Distribution, Impacting 20 Million and Risking 600K Lives in South Africa
Jan 28, 2025, 12:37 AM
The Trump administration has implemented a broad freeze on foreign aid, which includes halting the distribution of HIV medications under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). This directive affects medications already purchased with U.S. aid and stored in local clinics across various countries, impacting an estimated 20 million people, including half a million children. PEPFAR, initiated by former President George W. Bush, has been credited with saving over 25 million lives worldwide. The suspension of PEPFAR's activities, including the shutdown of its computer systems, suggests a potential long-term cessation of the program, causing immediate disruptions in treatment and raising concerns about the future of global HIV efforts. The move could cost an estimated 600,000 lives in South Africa alone over the next decade.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
More than 30% • 25%
Less than 10% • 25%
10% to 20% • 25%
20% to 30% • 25%
Reduction by more than 15% • 25%
Reduction by less than 5% • 25%
Reduction by 5% to 10% • 25%
Reduction by 10% to 15% • 25%
South Africa • 25%
Uganda • 25%
Both countries • 25%
Neither country • 25%