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Will Russia formally recognize the Taliban government by end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Russian government or recognized international diplomatic channels
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On December 17, 2024, Russia's State Duma Approves Law in Second and Third Readings to Remove Taliban from Terrorist List
Dec 17, 2024, 12:39 PM
On December 17, 2024, the Russian State Duma approved a law that allows for the removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. This legislation was passed in both the second and third readings, following its initial approval a week earlier. The new law introduces a mechanism for temporarily excluding groups from the terrorist list if they cease promoting terrorism. While this move does not formally recognize the Taliban government, it indicates a potential shift in Russia's approach towards the group, which has been expanding its relations with Moscow since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. The decision may also pave the way for normalization of relations with the Taliban and possibly with the new rulers of Syria.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
General acceptance • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Continued non-recognition • 25%
Conditional recognition • 25%
Other diplomatic approach • 25%
Formal recognition of Taliban • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Removed from list • 25%
Remain on list • 25%