Market
Which countries will establish formal relations with Taliban by end of 2025 following Russia's decision?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
China • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
Turkey • 25%
None of the above • 25%
Official government announcements from respective countries
Story
On December 17, 2024, Russia's State Duma Approves Law in Second and Third Readings to Remove Taliban from Terrorist List
Dec 17, 2024, 12:39 PM
On December 17, 2024, the Russian State Duma approved a law that allows for the removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. This legislation was passed in both the second and third readings, following its initial approval a week earlier. The new law introduces a mechanism for temporarily excluding groups from the terrorist list if they cease promoting terrorism. While this move does not formally recognize the Taliban government, it indicates a potential shift in Russia's approach towards the group, which has been expanding its relations with Moscow since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. The decision may also pave the way for normalization of relations with the Taliban and possibly with the new rulers of Syria.
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Similar markets
General acceptance • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Continued non-recognition • 25%
Conditional recognition • 25%
Other diplomatic approach • 25%
Formal recognition of Taliban • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Strengthened ties • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
Other • 25%
Removed from list • 25%
Remain on list • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Moderate engagement • 25%
Low engagement • 25%
High engagement • 25%
