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Will Nvidia face major operational restrictions in China by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Nvidia or regulatory announcements from Chinese authorities
Story
China Probes Nvidia's 2020 Mellanox Deal Amid US Export Controls and Huawei Rivalry
Dec 17, 2024, 12:38 PM
China has initiated an antitrust investigation into Nvidia Corp., a leading U.S. AI chipmaker based in Santa Clara, California, over its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, which was conditionally approved by China in 2019. The probe, announced by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), is part of escalating tensions between the U.S. and China over technology access, exacerbated by U.S. export controls on advanced chip technologies. The investigation comes as a response to these restrictions, with China signaling potential further reviews of U.S. tech deals. Nvidia holds a significant share in China's AI chip market, facing increased competition from domestic rivals like Huawei. The probe could impact Nvidia's operations in the region, where it accounts for about 15% of its data center revenue, or approximately $4.5 billion in the third quarter, representing 13% of its total Q3 revenue.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Nvidia fined • 25%
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