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Will Novo Nordisk announce a new CagriSema trial with improved results by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Novo Nordisk official press releases or financial news outlets
Story
Novo Nordisk Shares Plummet 29% After CagriSema Misses 25% Weight Loss Goal in REDEFINE 1 Trial
Dec 20, 2024, 11:17 AM
On December 20, 2024, Novo Nordisk announced that its experimental next-generation obesity drug, CagriSema, demonstrated a 22.7% weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight after 68 weeks in the REDEFINE 1 Phase 3 trial. This result fell short of the company's expectation of achieving 25% weight loss. In the trial, patients receiving semaglutide 2.4 mg lost 16.1%, cagrilintide 2.4 mg led to 11.8% weight loss, placebo resulted in a 2.3% reduction. Following the announcement, shares of Novo Nordisk, Europe's largest company by market capitalization, plummeted as much as 29%, the most significant decline on record, erasing over 1,000 billion kronor in market value. In contrast, shares of competitors Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics rallied, with Eli Lilly's stock rising approximately 10%. The trial results have cast doubt on Novo Nordisk's future competitiveness in the booming weight loss drug market.
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Similar markets
Pursue mergers or acquisitions • 25%
Develop a new obesity drug • 25%
Focus on improving CagriSema • 25%
Increase investment in marketing existing drugs • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Discontinue development • 25%
Submit for regulatory approval • 25%
Seek further trials • 25%
Partner with another company • 25%
Weight loss > 20.7% • 25%
Weight loss between 17.5% and 19% • 25%
Weight loss between 19% and 20.7% • 25%
Weight loss < 17.5% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Safety label update • 25%
Other regulatory actions • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Product recall • 25%