Market
Outcome of Novo Nordisk's next major obesity drug trial by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Exceeds expectations • 25%
Meets expectations • 25%
Falls short of expectations • 25%
Trial cancelled • 25%
Novo Nordisk official press releases or clinical trial registries
Story
Novo Nordisk Shares Plummet 29% After CagriSema Misses 25% Weight Loss Goal in REDEFINE 1 Trial
Dec 20, 2024, 11:17 AM
On December 20, 2024, Novo Nordisk announced that its experimental next-generation obesity drug, CagriSema, demonstrated a 22.7% weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight after 68 weeks in the REDEFINE 1 Phase 3 trial. This result fell short of the company's expectation of achieving 25% weight loss. In the trial, patients receiving semaglutide 2.4 mg lost 16.1%, cagrilintide 2.4 mg led to 11.8% weight loss, placebo resulted in a 2.3% reduction. Following the announcement, shares of Novo Nordisk, Europe's largest company by market capitalization, plummeted as much as 29%, the most significant decline on record, erasing over 1,000 billion kronor in market value. In contrast, shares of competitors Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics rallied, with Eli Lilly's stock rising approximately 10%. The trial results have cast doubt on Novo Nordisk's future competitiveness in the booming weight loss drug market.
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Partnership with another company • 25%
No major announcement • 25%
New drug entering Phase 3 trials • 25%
Improved results for CagriSema • 25%
Heart disease • 25%
Stroke • 25%
Kidney disease • 25%
Brain disorders • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Weight loss < 17.5% • 25%
Weight loss between 17.5% and 19% • 25%
Weight loss > 20.7% • 25%
Weight loss between 19% and 20.7% • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Merck • 25%
Other • 25%
Pfizer • 25%
Johnson & Johnson • 25%
Outside top 5 • 25%
Top 5 in the sector • 25%
Leader in the sector • 25%
Top 3 in the sector • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increase investment in marketing existing drugs • 25%
Focus on improving CagriSema • 25%
Develop a new obesity drug • 25%
Pursue mergers or acquisitions • 25%
Eli Lilly's Zepbound • 25%
A new drug from another company • 25%
No new major approvals • 25%
Novo Nordisk's semaglutide 7.2 mg • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
