Market
Will Israel and Gaza engage in new military conflict by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved governments
Story
Tens of Thousands Return to Northern Gaza as Israel Withdraws Under Ceasefire Agreement
Jan 27, 2025, 05:54 AM
Tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians have begun returning to their homes in northern Gaza for the first time in over a year, following the Israeli military's withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza. The withdrawal, stipulated under a ceasefire agreement, reopened the corridor that had divided Gaza into two parts during the conflict. The displaced individuals traveled via Al-Rashid Street and Salah al-Din Road, marking a significant step towards normalcy after 16 months of displacement.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Between July 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025 • 25%
No new confrontation by end of 2025 • 25%
After December 31, 2025 • 25%
Before June 30, 2025 • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%