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Will international terrorist fighters leave Syria by June 30, 2025, as demanded by Turkey?
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Turkey•Kurdish YPG•Syria•Hakan Fidan•Ankara•Fidan•Iran•Iraq•United States•Turkish Armed Forces•Syrian National Army•SNA•Peace Spring Operation•Tishrin Dam•Aleppo•Turkish Defense Ministry•Syrian leadership•YPG
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verification by international monitoring bodies or credible news reports
Story
Turkey Threatens Military Operation Against Kurdish YPG Near Tishrin Dam, Citing Use of Civilians as Shields
Jan 9, 2025, 01:01 AM
Turkey has escalated its stance against the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stating that a military operation will be launched if the group does not comply with Ankara's demands. Fidan emphasized that international terrorist fighters from Turkey, Iran, and Iraq must leave Syria immediately. The ultimatum was communicated through the United States and the media. Turkey has been actively preparing for potential operations, with the Turkish Armed Forces on alert and the Syrian National Army (SNA) deploying heavy weapons and fighters to front lines in the Peace Spring Operation area. These preparations include targeting PKK/YPG positions near the Tishrin Dam in eastern Aleppo. The Turkish Defense Ministry has signaled readiness for cross-border operations if terrorist groups do not disarm, citing the use of civilians as human shields by PKK/YPG near the Tishrin Dam as a human rights violation. Turkey's actions are in response to the recent change in Syrian leadership, with Ankara demanding that the new administration address the YPG issue.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant change • 25%
All foreign fighters leave • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Increased foreign fighter presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%