Market
Will Hezbollah reorganize its ranks in southern Lebanon by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Intelligence reports or credible news sources confirming Hezbollah's activities
Story
Israel to Extend Military Presence in Southern Lebanon to 90 Days, Cites Ceasefire Violations
Jan 4, 2025, 09:45 AM
Israel is expected to inform the United States that it will not withdraw its military forces from southern Lebanon after the 60-day period outlined in its ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. The decision is based on the claim that the Lebanese army is failing to meet the terms of the agreement, while Hezbollah is reorganizing its ranks in the region. Additionally, U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers, who chairs the ceasefire implementation committee, has reportedly informed Lebanese officials that Israel plans to extend its troop presence from 60 days to 90 days. This extension is due to the Lebanese army's slow deployment and failure to dismantle Hezbollah targets as stipulated in the ceasefire deal. Israel has also indicated that it will not allow residents of Lebanese border villages to return to their homes until its military presence is resolved.
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Increased presence • 25%
Fully withdrawn beyond Litani River • 25%
Partially withdrawn • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Leadership change due to internal conflict • 25%
Leadership change due to strategic shift • 25%
Leadership change due to casualties • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
