Market
Will Galactic Energy's reusable rocket test be declared successful by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
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Official statements from Galactic Energy or aerospace industry news
Story
Galactic Energy's Ceres-1 Y16 Successfully Launches Five Satellites into 535 km Orbit, Marks 16th Success from 17 Launches
Jan 20, 2025, 10:47 AM
On January 20, 2025, China's private aerospace company Galactic Energy successfully conducted its first launch mission of the year from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu Province. The Ceres-1 Y16 rocket lifted off at 6:11 PM BJT, delivering five satellites, including Yunyao-1 (satellites 37 to 40) and Jitianxing A-05, into a 535 km sun-synchronous orbit. This mission marks the fourth launch for China in 2025 and brings the total success rate of the Ceres-1 rocket series to 16 out of 17 launches, with a cumulative total of 63 satellites sent into orbit. The Ceres-1 Y16 is notable as the first rocket manufactured and assembled at Galactic Energy's new R&D and production base in Ziyang, Sichuan Province. Additionally, a high-altitude reusable rocket test was performed, though the outcome remains uncertain.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%
Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
