Market
Will China officially respond to the CIA's COVID-19 lab origin assessment by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements or press releases from the Chinese government
Story
CIA Under John Ratcliffe Assesses COVID-19 Likely From Chinese Lab, With Low Confidence
Jan 26, 2025, 03:44 PM
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has released an assessment indicating that the COVID-19 virus most likely originated from a laboratory in China, though it expresses low confidence in this conclusion. The report, which was completed under the Biden administration and declassified by newly appointed CIA Director John Ratcliffe, suggests that a lab-related origin is more probable than a natural one. However, the agency acknowledges that the evidence supporting this assessment is deficient, inconclusive, or contradictory. The assessment does not rely on new intelligence but rather on a reevaluation of existing data regarding the virus's spread, its scientific properties, and the conditions in Chinese labs. The release of this report has reignited debates about the origins of the virus, with some U.S. lawmakers calling for China to be held accountable for the global impact of the pandemic.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Counter-accusations • 25%
No official response • 25%
Acceptance and cooperation • 25%
Denial and condemnation • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Denial • 25%
Acceptance • 25%
Rejection • 25%
No comment • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No cooperation • 25%
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Partial cooperation • 25%
Full cooperation • 25%
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Laboratory data • 25%
Environmental samples • 25%
Animal market data • 25%