Market
Will changes on passports, IDs, and prison records regarding sex be prohibited by December 31, 2025?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official government policy documents or legal announcements
Story
Trump Declares Only Two Genders, Plans to End DEI Programs and Define Sex Biologically
Jan 20, 2025, 05:32 PM
President Donald Trump, during his inaugural address, announced that, as of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female. He declared that the government will recognize only two sexes and plans to issue executive orders to formalize this policy. These executive orders will require government agencies to define sex as biologically male or female, barring changes on passports, IDs, and prison records. Trump also stated his intention to end diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs within federal agencies and to end the housing of biological men in women's prisons.
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Similar markets
Only biological sex listed • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No change • 25%
Option for gender identity removed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other modifications • 25%
No changes • 25%
Require hormone therapy • 25%
Require psychological evaluations • 25%
No action • 25%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Major challenges • 34%
Some challenges • 33%
No major challenges • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
