Market
Will captured North Korean soldiers defect to South Korea by April 30, 2025?
3
North Korean•Russian•Russia•Kursk•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelenskyy•Zelenskyy•Ukraine•North Korea•Korean•South Korea
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from South Korean government or major news outlets
Story
Ukraine Captures Two North Korean Soldiers in Kursk on January 9, Offers Exchange for POWs
Jan 14, 2025, 04:34 PM
Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian troops in Russia's Kursk border region on January 9, as announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has found 'irrefutable evidence' of North Korea's involvement in the conflict. One of the captured soldiers attempted self-detonation by shouting 'Kim Jong Un General!' and trying to explode a grenade, but was shot by Ukrainian forces. The soldiers were interrogated with the help of a Korean translator, revealing that they believed they were on a training exercise, not fighting in Ukraine. Zelenskyy has offered to exchange these soldiers for Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia, and has indicated that South Korea is prepared to accept the soldiers if they wish to defect.
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Similar markets
Remained in Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Defected to South Korea • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Soldiers granted asylum in a third country • 25%
Soldiers remain detained in Ukraine • 25%
Soldiers returned to North Korea • 25%
Held indefinitely in Ukraine • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Repatriated to North Korea • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Confession of combat role • 25%
Revelation of new intelligence • 25%
Confirmation of North Korean military involvement • 25%
Denial of North Korean military involvement • 25%
No information released • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No significant information • 25%
Denial of combat role • 25%
Deportation to North Korea • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Trial in Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
