Market
Will a formal investigation into Biden's presidency management be launched by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Congressional records or official announcements of investigations
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Speaker Johnson Reveals Biden's Unawareness of LNG Export Pause in January 2024 Meeting
Jan 18, 2025, 04:09 PM
House Speaker Mike Johnson revealed that during a January 2024 meeting in the Oval Office, President Joe Biden was unaware of an executive order he had signed just three weeks earlier, which paused liquified natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe. Johnson recounted asking Biden about the decision, to which Biden responded that he had not issued such an order. Johnson clarified that the order was signed and was causing significant economic and national security concerns, particularly in Louisiana where export terminals are located. Johnson expressed concern over who was truly running the country, suggesting that Biden did not understand the contents of the documents he was signing. This incident raises questions about the management of Biden's presidency, especially in light of his age and cognitive state.
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Other outcome • 25%
No evidence of political persecution • 25%
Some evidence, no action • 25%
Evidence leading to policy changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
FBI • 25%
Justice Department • 25%
Other federal agency • 25%
No specific agency identified • 25%
Investigation, procedural changes • 25%
No investigation • 25%
Investigation, no action • 25%
Investigation, impeachment proceedings • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Investigation leading to charges • 25%
Investigation with no charges • 25%
No investigation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
