Market
Who will win the special election for Michael Waltz's seat by December 31, 2025?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Republican wins • 33%
Democrat wins • 33%
Independent wins • 33%
No election held • 1%
Official election results
Story
Rep. Michael Waltz Resigns from House, Narrowing GOP Majority to 218-215; Stefanik May Follow
Jan 20, 2025, 03:07 PM
Representative Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) has resigned from the U.S. House of Representatives to join the Trump administration as the National Security Advisor. His resignation was officially announced and read on the House floor, reducing the Republican majority to a 218-215 margin. This change leaves the GOP with a slim margin, allowing Speaker Mike Johnson to lose only one Republican vote on any legislation if all members are present and voting. The House now has 433 members, with two vacancies including Waltz's seat and that of former Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL). There is speculation that Representative Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) may also resign soon to take a position in the Trump administration.
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Other party candidate wins • 25%
Democratic candidate wins • 25%
Republican candidate wins • 25%
Independent candidate wins • 25%
Third Party • 33%
Republican • 33%
Democrat • 33%
Democrat • 33%
Third Party • 33%
Republican • 33%
No appointment made by deadline • 25%
Lara Trump • 25%
Another Trump family member • 25%
A non-Trump affiliated candidate • 25%
Ashley Moody • 25%
Lara Trump • 25%
Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Lara Trump • 25%
A prominent business leader • 25%
A member of the Florida State Legislature • 25%
