Market
What will be the control status of the House by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Republicans maintain control • 33%
Democrats gain control • 33%
Control remains unchanged • 33%
Other outcome • 1%
House membership records and control status
Story
Rep. Michael Waltz Resigns from House, Narrowing GOP Majority to 218-215; Stefanik May Follow
Jan 20, 2025, 03:07 PM
Representative Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) has resigned from the U.S. House of Representatives to join the Trump administration as the National Security Advisor. His resignation was officially announced and read on the House floor, reducing the Republican majority to a 218-215 margin. This change leaves the GOP with a slim margin, allowing Speaker Mike Johnson to lose only one Republican vote on any legislation if all members are present and voting. The House now has 433 members, with two vacancies including Waltz's seat and that of former Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL). There is speculation that Representative Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) may also resign soon to take a position in the Trump administration.
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Similar markets
Other • 25%
Democrat • 25%
Republican • 25%
Independent • 25%
More than 10 seats • 25%
6-10 seats • 25%
3-5 seats • 25%
1-2 seats • 25%
Neither • 25%
Yes, both Senate and House • 25%
Only Senate • 25%
Only House • 25%
Republican • 33%
Other/Coalition • 34%
Democrat • 33%
Republican • 33%
Split • 34%
Democratic • 33%
Democratic • 33%
Republican • 33%
Independent/Other • 34%
Independent/Other • 34%
Democrats • 33%
Republicans • 33%
Other • 25%
Equal Gain • 25%
Republican Party • 25%
Democratic Party • 25%