Market
Which country will next deny U.S. deportation flight permission by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mexico • 25%
Guatemala • 25%
Honduras • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified news reports, official statements from involved countries
Story
Mexico Denies U.S. Deportation Flight to Guatemala on Thursday, Stalls Trump's Immigration Plan
Jan 24, 2025, 10:38 PM
Mexico has denied a U.S. military plane permission to land on Thursday, thwarting the Trump administration's efforts to deport immigrants to the country. The incident involved a flight that was part of a broader initiative to deport immigrants. Two other flights successfully deported about 80 immigrants each to Guatemala, but the flight intended for Mexico was canceled after Mexican authorities refused to grant landing permission. This action has been attributed to rising tensions between the U.S. and Mexico, exacerbated by President Donald Trump's immigration policies, including threats of tariffs and the reinstatement of the 'remain in Mexico' policy.
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Similar markets
Mexico • 25%
Other • 25%
Canada • 25%
Venezuela • 25%
Canada • 25%
El Salvador • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico • 25%
6 to 10 countries • 25%
None • 25%
1 to 5 countries • 25%
More than 10 countries • 25%
Guatemala • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Other • 25%
Honduras • 25%
Venezuela • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Brazil • 25%
Colombia • 25%
Honduras • 25%
Guatemala • 25%
Mexico • 25%
El Salvador • 25%
Honduras • 25%
Other • 25%
Guatemala • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Bahamas and another Caribbean country • 25%
Only Bahamas • 25%
Multiple Caribbean countries • 25%
No countries • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
