Market
Which countries will be involved in a formal diplomatic dispute over the Shunxin-39 incident by end of 2025?
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Taiwan•Chunghwa Telecom•Yehliu•New Taipei•Taiwan Coast Guard Administration•CGA•Hong Kong•China•South Korea
Resolution / Starting Odds
Taiwan and China • 25%
Taiwan and South Korea • 25%
Taiwan and Cameroon • 25%
No formal diplomatic dispute • 25%
Official diplomatic communications or media reports
Story
Taiwan Probes Suspected Sabotage of Undersea Cable by Shunxin-39, Seeks South Korea's Help
Jan 5, 2025, 05:10 PM
Taiwan is investigating a suspected act of sabotage involving the damage of an undersea cable near its northeastern coast, which authorities attribute to a Cameroon-registered cargo ship, the Shunxin-39. The incident occurred on January 3, when Chunghwa Telecom reported damage to a four-core undersea cable near Yehliu, New Taipei. Despite the damage, domestic communications were unaffected due to backup systems. The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration (CGA) located the Shunxin-39 seven nautical miles north of Yehliu and ordered it to return for investigation, though adverse weather conditions prevented boarding. Taiwanese officials suspect the vessel is owned by a Hong Kong-based company with ties to mainland China. The incident has been referred to prosecutors for further investigation, and Taiwan has sought assistance from South Korea, where the ship is heading. This event is seen as part of a broader pattern of maritime sabotage, raising concerns over the security of critical undersea infrastructure.
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Other countries • 25%
China • 25%
South Korea only • 25%
No other country • 25%
US, Russia, and China • 25%
Only US and Russia • 25%
US, Russia, and EU • 25%
US, Russia, and other countries • 25%
No damage found • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Resolved without international assistance • 25%
Resolved with South Korean assistance • 25%
Resolution involves multiple countries • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other countries • 25%
European Union • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
More than 4 additional countries • 25%
No additional countries • 25%
1-2 additional countries • 25%
3-4 additional countries • 25%
UN Security Council meeting • 25%
New diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Sanction discussions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Japan • 25%
United States • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other countries involved • 25%
Turkey, Russia, and EU • 25%
Turkey, Russia, and the US • 25%
Turkey and Russia only • 25%
No diplomatic discussions • 25%
Saudi Arabia and non-EU countries • 25%
Saudi Arabia and EU countries • 25%
Saudi Arabia only • 25%