Market
Where will automotive manufacturing plants shift by December 31, 2025?
2
Donald Trump•Canada•Mexico•USMCA•Wall Street Journal•Trump•United States•Mexico USMCA•Kenneth Smith•Smith
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major shift to the U.S. • 25%
Major shift to Canada • 25%
Major shift to Mexico • 25%
No major shift • 25%
Reports from automotive companies or credible news sources
Story
Trump Threatens Tariffs on Canada and Mexico to Push for Early USMCA Renegotiation Before 2026
Jan 21, 2025, 09:13 PM
President Donald Trump is leveraging the threat of imposing tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico to expedite the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), according to reports from the Wall Street Journal. Trump's strategy aims to initiate talks before the scheduled 2026 review, with a particular focus on altering the automotive rules within the trade pact. This move is intended to encourage the relocation of car manufacturing plants from Canada and Mexico back to the United States. The threat of tariffs, potentially as soon as next week, is seen as a negotiation mechanism by Trump, as noted by former Mexico USMCA negotiator Kenneth Smith. Smith also warned that a 25% U.S. tariff on Mexico could lead to the suspension of USMCA, and suggested that Mexico should retaliate if such tariffs are imposed.
View original story
Similar markets
Apple • 25%
General Motors • 25%
Tesla • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
General Motors • 25%
Other • 25%
Toyota • 25%
Ford • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Major industry pushback • 25%
Minor industry pushback • 25%
Positive industry response • 25%
Increase • 33%
Decrease • 33%
Remain the same • 34%
Legal Challenge • 25%
Lobbying for Revision • 25%
Other • 25%
Compliance • 25%
Ford • 25%
Tesla • 25%
General Motors • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Toyota • 25%
General Motors • 25%
Ford • 25%
Electric Vehicle Focus • 25%
Expansion into New Markets • 25%
Other • 25%
Cost-Cutting Measures • 25%