Market
What will international investigations conclude about Iran's involvement by June 30, 2025?
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Yemen•Houthi•Iran•American•Arabian Sea•Gulf of Aden•Yemeni Armed Forces•Stena Impeccable•Maersk Saratoga•Liberty Grace•Houthis•Yahya Saree
Resolution / Starting Odds
Direct involvement confirmed • 25%
Indirect support confirmed • 25%
No involvement confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive evidence • 25%
Reports from international investigative bodies or verified news reports
Story
Yemen's Houthis Launch 16 Missiles and Drones at U.S. Navy Destroyer, Three Supply Ships
Dec 1, 2024, 06:58 PM
Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have launched a significant military operation targeting a U.S. Navy destroyer and three American-affiliated supply ships in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Yemeni Armed Forces executed the operation using 16 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with drones. The targeted vessels include the Stena Impeccable, an oil/chemical tanker, the Maersk Saratoga, a container ship, and the Liberty Grace, a bulk carrier. The military spokesperson for the Houthis, Yahya Saree, confirmed the attack, stating it was a precise and coordinated effort.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Iran found guilty • 25%
Iran found not guilty • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Decrease in enrichment • 25%
Increase in enrichment • 25%
No change in enrichment • 25%
Other significant finding • 25%
Progress halted • 25%
Progress unchanged • 25%
Progress accelerated • 25%
Progress slowed • 25%
Iranian government implicated • 25%
No further action taken • 25%
New indictments issued • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
No further action taken • 25%
Sanctions or restrictions imposed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No Official Response • 25%
Support for Iran • 25%
Condemnation of Iran • 25%
Call for Investigation • 25%
Iran partially compliant • 25%
Iran non-compliant • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran in compliance • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Hamas held accountable • 25%
Israel criticized for response • 25%
No significant findings • 25%
Both sides criticized • 25%