Market
What will be the Supreme Court's decision on California's emissions standards by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Uphold California's standards • 25%
Strike down California's standards • 25%
Remand to lower court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official Supreme Court ruling
Story
Supreme Court to Review California's Vehicle Emissions Standards Amid EPA Waiver Challenge
Dec 13, 2024, 08:05 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case challenging California's authority to set its own vehicle emissions standards, including regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. The case, brought by fuel producers including Valero Energy Corp., questions whether these companies have legal standing to sue over the regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had previously granted California a waiver under the Clean Air Act to implement stricter emissions standards due to the state's unique air pollution issues. The Supreme Court's decision to review the case comes at a time when California's auto rules are under threat following Donald Trump's presidential election victory, which could impact future EPA waivers needed for California to enforce its regulations.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No legal challenges • 25%
Major legal challenges • 25%
Regulations overturned • 25%
Minor legal challenges • 25%
Upheld • 33%
Partially Overturned • 33%
Fully Overturned • 34%
Partial modifications • 34%
Ban overturned • 33%
Ban upheld • 33%
Compromise reached • 34%
Ban overturned • 33%
Ban upheld • 33%
By December 31, 2025 • 25%
By March 31, 2025 • 25%
By June 30, 2025 • 25%
By September 30, 2025 • 25%
Fewer than 10 states • 25%
10 to 15 states • 25%
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16 to 20 states • 25%
Reversal Unsuccessful • 25%
Legal Proceedings Ongoing • 25%
Compromise Reached • 25%
Reversal Successful • 25%
