Market
What will be the status of Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani by March 31, 2025?
2
Biden•Taliban•American•Ryan Corbett•George Glezmann•Mahmoud Habibi•Afghanistan•Afghan•al Qaeda•Guantanamo•Jake Sullivan•House Foreign Affairs Committee•Oman
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains in Guantanamo • 25%
Transferred to Afghanistan • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news outlets
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates With Taliban to Swap Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, Mahmoud Habibi for Guantanamo's Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani
Jan 7, 2025, 12:25 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three American citizens, Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, and Mahmoud Habibi, detained in Afghanistan in 2022, in exchange for Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani, an Afghan man alleged to be a high-level operative of al Qaeda, who has been detained at Guantanamo since 2008. The talks, ongoing since July 2024, were discussed in a classified briefing by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. This development follows the Biden administration's recent transfer of 11 Guantanamo detainees to Oman, part of an effort to reduce the prison population as the president prepares to leave office on January 20, 2025.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Found alive • 25%
Found deceased • 25%
Still missing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified as a mid-level associate • 25%
Identified as a high-profile associate of Osama bin Laden • 25%
Identity remains undisclosed • 25%
Identified as a low-level associate • 25%
No clear attribution • 25%
Foreign intelligence agencies • 25%
ISIS-K • 25%
Internal Taliban dissidents • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Death penalty • 25%
Life imprisonment • 25%
Plea deal accepted • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Retaliatory attacks • 25%
Diplomatic outreach • 25%
Arrested but not extradited • 25%
Arrested and extradited • 25%
Not arrested • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
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In custody in the US • 25%
In custody in Lebanon • 25%