Market
What will be the South African government's response to the PEPFAR suspension by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Negotiates with US for resumption • 25%
Seeks alternative international aid • 25%
Implements domestic funding solution • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Official announcements from the South African government or news reports
Story
Trump Administration Halts HIV Medication Distribution, Impacting 20 Million and Risking 600K Lives in South Africa
Jan 28, 2025, 12:37 AM
The Trump administration has implemented a broad freeze on foreign aid, which includes halting the distribution of HIV medications under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). This directive affects medications already purchased with U.S. aid and stored in local clinics across various countries, impacting an estimated 20 million people, including half a million children. PEPFAR, initiated by former President George W. Bush, has been credited with saving over 25 million lives worldwide. The suspension of PEPFAR's activities, including the shutdown of its computer systems, suggests a potential long-term cessation of the program, causing immediate disruptions in treatment and raising concerns about the future of global HIV efforts. The move could cost an estimated 600,000 lives in South Africa alone over the next decade.
View original story
Similar markets
Condemnation • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No official response • 25%
Support • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Aid partially resumed • 25%
Aid permanently halted • 25%
Aid permanently reduced • 25%
Aid fully resumed • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase in regulatory measures • 25%
Engagement in diplomatic talks • 25%
Public condemnation of sanctions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Political strategy • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Economic considerations • 25%