Market
What will be the public response to the NDAA transgender care ban by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Widespread protests • 25%
Legal challenges • 25%
Minimal public response • 25%
Supportive public demonstrations • 25%
Major news outlets or public opinion polls
Story
Senate Passes $895B Defense Bill with Troop Pay Raise, Transgender Care Ban for Minors, Sends to Biden
Dec 18, 2024, 03:44 PM
The US Senate has passed an $895 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) with a strong bipartisan vote of 85-14, sending the bill to President Joe Biden for his signature. The legislation includes the largest troop pay raise in decades, providing a 14.5% increase for junior enlisted service members and 4.5% for others, and funds military housing. The bill also removes Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives and bans taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries, including gender-affirming care for military dependents under 18. The passage of the NDAA marks the 64th consecutive year that Congress has approved this essential defense policy legislation.
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Unclear or no significant opinion • 25%
Majority oppose the provision • 25%
Majority support the provision • 25%
Evenly divided opinion • 25%
Provision remains unchanged • 25%
Provision is overturned by court • 25%
Provision is removed • 25%
Provision is amended • 25%
Provision is repealed • 25%
Provision is struck down by court • 25%
Provision is amended • 25%
Provision remains unchanged • 25%
Provision is modified • 25%
Provision remains unchanged • 25%
Provision is removed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No Clear Opinion • 25%
Majority Oppose • 25%
Evenly Split • 25%
Majority Support • 25%
Mostly Negative • 25%
Mostly Positive • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Amendment Passed • 33%
Amendment Failed • 33%
Vote Postponed • 34%
