Market
What will be the public reaction to the spending bill by February 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Major protests in multiple states • 25%
Minor protests in a few locations • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Reports from major news outlets or public records
Story
Musk, Trump, and Ramaswamy Oppose 1,547-Page Spending Bill, Heightening Shutdown Risk
Dec 18, 2024, 10:56 PM
Elon Musk and President-elect Donald Trump have publicly opposed a bipartisan 1,547-page spending bill that aims to fund the government until mid-March and avert a shutdown. Musk criticized the bill on social media, stating "This bill should not pass," and claimed "We're funding bioweapon labs in this bill!" He also threatened to fund primary opponents against Republicans who support the bill. Vivek Ramaswamy joined Musk in opposing the legislation. Trump's opposition has caused House Speaker Mike Johnson to reconsider the bill and consider alternative options. Their stance has increased the likelihood of a shutdown, raising concerns about potential impacts on federal workers and services during the holiday season.
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Supportive • 25%
No significant comment • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Passes with all provisions intact • 25%
Passes with significant amendments • 25%
Alternative bill passed • 25%
Bill passes without debt ceiling measures • 25%
Bill passes with debt ceiling measures • 25%
Bill fails • 25%
Decrease • 33%
Increase • 33%
No change • 33%
50%-60% • 25%
Below 40% • 25%
40%-49% • 25%
Above 60% • 25%
Majority oppose repeal • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Majority support repeal • 25%
Evenly split opinion • 25%
Other amendments • 25%
Fails • 25%
Passes without pay raise • 25%
Passes with pay raise • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Negative • 25%
Positive • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant reactions • 25%
Majority negative reactions • 25%
Majority positive reactions • 25%
Passed with Amendments • 25%
Passed without Amendments • 25%
Still Blocked • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Mostly Positive • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Mostly Negative • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Low awareness • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Majority support • 25%