Market
What will be the public reaction to the attempted arrest of President Yoon by February 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support Yoon • 25%
Majority oppose Yoon • 25%
Public opinion is divided • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Public opinion polls or surveys conducted by reputable organizations
Story
South Korean President Yoon's Arrest Blocked by 200 Security Personnel in Five-Hour Standoff
Jan 3, 2025, 11:25 AM
South Korea's anti-corruption agency attempted to execute an arrest warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol, but was blocked by approximately 200 presidential security forces and military personnel, including armed security personnel who formed human barricades. The five-hour standoff ended with the suspension of the arrest attempt due to safety concerns for the investigators. The presidential security service refused to cooperate, citing legal and security reasons. Supporters and opponents of Yoon gathered near the presidential residence, leading to chaotic scenes and protests. The attempted arrest has plunged South Korea into political turmoil, with concerns over the stability of the presidency and the rule of law. The anti-corruption agency may reattempt the arrest before the warrant expires on January 6 and has indicated it may take legal action against security officials obstructing the arrest.
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Mixed reactions • 25%
Major protests in support • 25%
Major protests against • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Calm acceptance • 25%
Widespread protests • 25%
General support for arrest • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
General public indifference • 25%
Major protests against Yoon • 25%
Major protests in support of Yoon • 25%
Mixed reactions with no major protests • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
Evenly split opinion • 25%
Majority support the warrant • 25%
Majority oppose the warrant • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Major protests • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Support for Yoon • 25%
Minor protests • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Flees the country • 25%
Voluntarily surrenders • 25%
Successfully detained • 25%
Arrest blocked by security • 25%
Arrest delayed • 25%
Successful arrest • 25%
Arrest attempt called off • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
Major protests in support of Yoon • 25%
Major protests against Yoon • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%