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What will be the political stability outcome in France by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and political analysis
Story
Moody's Downgrades France's Credit Rating to Aa3 from Aa2 with Stable Outlook on December 13, 2024
Dec 14, 2024, 06:52 AM
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3, with a stable outlook. This decision, announced on December 13, 2024, is attributed to deteriorating public finances and increasing political fragmentation within the country. The agency highlighted that the downgrade reflects concerns over France's fiscal stability and the challenges the new government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, will face in managing the nation's debt and deficit. The downgrade comes at a critical time, as it follows the recent appointment of Bayrou, marking a significant challenge for his administration. The rating change may also impact France's borrowing costs and investor confidence in the country's financial outlook.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Republicans gain majority • 25%
Other party gains majority • 25%
Renaissance gains majority • 25%
La France Insoumise gains majority • 25%
Resigns or replaced • 25%
Fails to stabilize • 25%
Partially stabilizes • 25%
Successfully stabilizes • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Other • 25%
Les Républicains • 25%
National Rally • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Fully Implemented • 25%
Partially Implemented • 25%
Policy Reversed • 25%
Not Implemented • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Les Républicains • 25%
Other • 25%
Democratic Movement (MoDem) • 25%
Barnier retains position • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Vote postponed • 25%
Barnier loses position • 25%
Lose seats • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintain seats • 25%
Increase seats • 25%
Stable • 25%
Downgraded • 25%
Upgraded • 25%
Negative • 25%
