Market
What will be the political outcome for Democrats who opposed the bill in the next election by November 2026?
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Republicans•Democrats•Jerry Nadler•Adam Schiff•House•Nancy Pelosi•Senate Judiciary Committee•Elon Musk
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority re-elected • 25%
Majority lose seats • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official election results
Story
U.S. House Passes Bill to Deport Undocumented Immigrants Convicted of Sex Crimes; Elon Musk Calls for Ouster of 158 Opposing Democrats
Jan 5, 2025, 12:14 PM
In September 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill aimed at deporting undocumented immigrants convicted of sex crimes. The legislation, known as the Violence Against Women by Illegal Aliens Act, received support from all 215 present Republicans and 51 Democrats, but was opposed by 158 Democrats. Notable among those who voted against the bill were Representatives Jerry Nadler, Adam Schiff, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The bill, which has been referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee, seeks to ensure the deportation of illegal immigrants convicted of sexual offenses, as well as those who admit to or are convicted of domestic violence or sex-related charges. The vote has sparked renewed criticism on social media, with tech billionaire Elon Musk calling for the ousting of the Democrats who opposed the bill, stating that there is 'no excuse' for their stance.
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Similar markets
Majority successfully challenged • 25%
Some successfully challenged • 25%
Few successfully challenged • 25%
None successfully challenged • 25%
Progressives gain more influence • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Establishment gains more influence • 25%
No significant comment • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Passes with tie-breaking vote • 25%
Passes with majority • 25%
Fails • 25%
Not voted on • 25%
Positive • 25%
Other • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Negative • 25%
Support Johnson's bill • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Propose alternative bill • 25%
Oppose Johnson's bill • 25%
Passes with pay raise • 25%
Other amendments • 25%
Fails • 25%
Passes without pay raise • 25%
Decreased political support • 25%
Other consequences • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased political support • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Opposed • 33%
Supportive • 33%
Neutral • 34%
Democrats • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both Equally • 25%
Republicans • 25%
Fails • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Passes without Pay Raise • 25%
Passes with Pay Raise • 25%