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What will be the outcome of U.S. pressure on Ukraine regarding military draft age by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age remains at 25 • 25%
Draft age changed to between 19-24 • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Official statements from U.S. or Ukrainian governments or credible news reports
Story
Biden Pressures Ukraine to Lower Military Draft Age to 18, Amid $300B Aid and 100,000+ Desertions
Dec 4, 2024, 04:51 PM
The Biden administration is reportedly pressuring Ukraine to lower its military conscription age to 18, amidst ongoing concerns regarding the conflict with Russia. This push comes as the U.S. has provided substantial financial support to Ukraine, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 in April, but the move faced backlash and did not yield the desired results. Current discussions suggest that American voices are advocating for an even younger draft age, despite opposition from Ukrainians who do not support the idea of an 18-year-old draft. Additionally, there are reports indicating that over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted the military, raising questions about the sustainability of recruitment efforts.
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Age lowered to 18 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Age raised above 25 • 25%
Age remains at 25 • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Lowered to 18 • 25%
Remains unchanged • 25%
Increased • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other actions • 25%
Conscription age increased • 25%
Conscription age unchanged • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Majority support lowering age • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Majority oppose lowering age • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Conscription age remains unchanged • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Alternative recruitment strategies adopted • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Raised above current level • 25%
Lowered to 18 • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains unchanged • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Encourage other recruitment methods • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Support current policy • 25%
Pressure to lower age • 25%
